Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Who let the BRICs out ?

We all know about movie sequels that promise more than they deliver. Now I guess this affliction has spread to the equity analyst industry and they are adopting the sequel saga style to report writing.

Let’s look at the report that changed the lives of over 1 billion people. Scarcely did the man dangling out of the 8:25 am Virar local or the woman making rotis to send her children to school in 2002, know that they are being watched , researched and subsequently abused in a mind numbing data crunching exercise by two star analysts from Goldman Sachs. Rupa Purshottaman became a household name by seeing something 40 years ahead breaking the thin lines that existed between her and Nostradamus or Bejan Daruwala. Like a cow urinating on Delhi’s streets , four countries economic growth rates were projected for 50 years , a big step for mankind but a small step for Microsoft Excel.

Dreaming with the BRICs: 2003 the original

With a Star Wars type impact , this report asked us “Are we ready”? painting grand scenarios of how BRICs would overtake the G6 counries and be the epicenter of growth in the next 30 years completely changing the world as we know it. Although the model lacked the finesse to predict Shilpa Shetty redeeming Indian pride in Big Brother or Ash being featured regularly on Yahoo , it became the new kundli for India. Instead of reaching for the stars, it was the BRICs report. Foreign investors were greeted not with begging bowls but with a smug assurance that this too shall pass by 2030. Yes some parties believed too much of it too early and lost elections. But India was never going to be the same again.

Then came BRICs 2. 2004

Like fast and furious 2, this report made cars the basis. So within 20 years China was to overtake US as the largest auto market and then a decade later it would be India. The sequel raised further issues on how the BRICs markets would eclipse whole of Europe in 2025 and contribute to 40% of the growth. The trickle of FDI turned to be a flood and soon the Indian stock markets went into a tizzy. Indian companies acquired an unstoppable momentum more associated with sci-fi villains who could put no step wrong. As mobile growth of Bharti eclipsed Bhartiyata, MMS clips of various Indian women were exchanged million times over. Well this was the new India brewing in Barista cafes and places like Upper Worli. Malls, multiplexes, movies and Mallika added a force that pushed GDP growth to 8%. India was surely on a roll to bigger things and bigger flats that could never be purchased by the man in the Virar local.

Now comes BRICs 3

Now we have the final punch: India will surpass the USA in 2050 a feat accomplished by changing growth rates from 5.3% to 8% in the model that knows it all.

How will it happen? The trickle down effect of all the poojas that Abhishek and Ash have done will obviously work. For a country that regarded their marriage more important than the Kumbh mela, there can be no ‘amangal’ any more.

We can have some Deewar type dialogues at the US Embassy in Mumbai. Aaj se 25 saal pehle, tum log hume bheek mein visa dete the. Aaj hum tumhe bheek VISA card se dete hai.

With the India story becoming as saccharine sweet as Karan Johar movies , you need not worry about life any more. It is a one way street , either the Bangalore variety or upward bound only time will tell.


At 1:14 AM, Blogger Hina said...

When the going is good, it can only get better! And woe befall the Cassandra's who dare find fault with the happily-ever-after Indian saga.
A very pertinent post.

At 12:52 AM, Blogger Pen said...

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